Technically speaking, autocorrelation is the tendency of a time series to be correlated with its past and future values. \beginThis factor also carries an additional adjustment for autocorrelation, which is the bane of all Elo systems that try to adjust for scoring margin. This process is repeated for every game, from kickoff in September until the Super Bowl.įor any game between two teams (A and B) with certain pregame Elo ratings, the odds of Team A winning are: After the game, each team’s rating changes based on the result, in relation to how unexpected the outcome was and the winning margin. Those ratings are then used to generate win probabilities for games, based on the difference in quality between the two teams involved, plus adjustments for changes at starting quarterback, the location of the matchup (including travel distance) and any extra rest days either team had coming into the contest. In essence, Elo assigns every team a power rating (the NFL average is around 1500). The nuts and bolts of that system are described below. Way back in 2014, we developed our NFL Elo ratings to forecast the outcome of every game. The sport we cut our teeth on, though, was professional football. FiveThirtyEight has an admitted fondness for the Elo rating - a simple system that judges teams or players based on head-to-head results - and we’ve used it to rate competitors in basketball, baseball, tennis and various other sports over the years.
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